Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.111884 3.346733 3.610355 3.932862 4.323728 4.792225 5.413661
2025-02-23 2.735269 3.021480 3.363290 3.814667 4.418435 5.240844 6.545818
2025-03-02 2.557184 2.875884 3.273135 3.828155 4.631718 5.859848 8.221973
2025-03-09 2.420081 2.756403 3.188778 3.819235 4.792481 6.441704 10.346185
2025-03-16 2.289599 2.629432 3.075354 3.744889 4.827424 6.816796 12.551854
2025-03-23 2.230579 2.588432 3.070424 3.822601 5.119375 7.815508 19.340321
2025-03-30 2.124319 2.475464 2.953476 3.711567 5.055612 8.018281 24.368951
2025-04-06 2.027090 2.368714 2.837065 3.587952 4.945115 8.065510 29.833567
2025-04-13 1.953268 2.289926 2.755355 3.511349 4.910321 8.304914 44.068379
2025-04-20 1.925507 2.272783 2.761411 3.577510 5.168528 9.563414 NaN
2025-04-27 1.918557 2.283733 2.809001 3.718454 5.622407 12.089738 NaN
2025-05-04 1.879968 2.247265 2.781519 3.723999 5.775444 13.731481 NaN
2025-05-11 1.845712 2.217233 2.764787 3.752677 6.010218 16.631985 NaN
2025-05-18 1.784645 2.145776 2.679285 3.645799 5.874775 16.797366 NaN
2025-05-25 1.753031 2.116035 2.657991 3.658044 6.063085 20.605770 NaN
2025-06-01 1.719695 2.082196 2.627928 3.649948 6.195027 25.289385 NaN
2025-06-08 1.677062 2.032915 2.570315 3.582383 6.136941 27.272984 NaN
2025-06-15 1.663611 2.026446 2.581723 3.653004 6.524807 50.670772 NaN
2025-06-22 1.619454 1.972274 2.511932 3.552055 6.333306 47.585421 NaN
2025-06-29 1.575070 1.916722 2.438183 3.439300 6.089662 40.621086 NaN
2025-07-06 1.540472 1.875153 2.386373 3.369232 5.980710 41.574265 NaN
2025-07-13 1.531380 1.871750 2.397556 3.429758 6.325605 144.592096 NaN
2025-07-20 1.533933 1.885985 2.438826 3.558326 6.982512 NaN NaN